I’ve written on a couple previous occasions about how our approach to copyright policy is badly distorted by wildly inflated estimates of what online piracy “costs” the U.S. economy. The true figure, as most serious analysts admit, is likely unknowable, but the content industries have discovered that no figure is too ludicrous to be parroted with a straight face by well-meaning politicians. The higher the fabricated number, the easier it becomes to claim that even the most expensive and draconian antipiracy measures, however questionably effective, can pass a cost-benefit test. Some recent news involving the video streaming site Hulu reminds me of yet another reason to be wary of those figures.
According to press reports, free access to Hulu content may soon be limited to users who already subscribe to a traditional cable package. The incumbent cable companies hope this will entice viewers to buy or maintain more profitable cable subscriptions rather than “cutting the cord” and shifting entirely to online viewing. Some may, of course, but others will predictably turn to piracy: Tech reporter Ryan Singel of Wired joked on Twitter that the Pirate Bay was probably purchasing new servers in response to the announcement. Regardless of whether Hulu ultimately opts for this approach, there’s a more serious general point to be teased out there, however.
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