The peaceful protests that first challenged Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria are ancient history. Today, the country is sinking into a brutal civil war. Assad is almost certain to lose, but the conflict will consume many more lives.
Meanwhile, Washington hopes to stabilize the nation once Assad disappears into history’s great dustbin. However, this task has been complicated by the rebels’ increasing brutality. Civil wars are notoriously hard to contain. Already, reported the International Crisis Group, “Large numbers of regime sympathizers and opponents have been killed.” And last week, CNN obtained more videos of anti-Assad forces staging brutal executions of their opponents.
While the regime so far remains to blame for most civilian deaths—it possesses both capability (heavy armament) and will (to resist peaceful or violent change)—the longer the fighting goes on, the more divided the equities are likely to become. Warned ICG: “Over the course of this prolonged struggle, what initially were promising expressions of social solidarity increasingly have been soiled, as the conflict successively unearthed, worsened and became mired in the country’s numerous divides and fault lines.”
Indeed, fear has driven many of Syria’s minorities to back Assad, an Alawite, whose Shia-related faith is seen as heretical by many Sunnis.
Unsurprisingly, Assad’s coreligionists perceive themselves at greatest risk and form the core of the regime’s support. Although they often have exaggerated sectarian threats, the danger is rising. Some rebel forces have rejected Alawites as recruits and targeted Alawite civilians.
For similar reasons, Christians and Kurds also have been more likely to either aid the regime or remain neutral. The defense minister killed by the recent Damascus terrorist bombing was a Christian. Although claims of violent persecution have been disputed, there is evidence that the resistance has targeted Christians. Moreover, the rising influence of jihadists and Al Qaeda among the rebels offers a frightening portent for the future.
Reported the New York Times: “The evidence is mounting that Syria has become a magnet for Sunni extremists, including those operating under the banner of al-Qaeda. An important border crossing with Turkey that fell into Syrian rebels’ hands [in mid-July], Bab al-Hawa, has quickly become a jihadist congregating point.” An increasing number of radicals appear to fight with the Free Syrian Army but for Al Qaeda. Christians look across the border to Iraq and see the disastrous consequences of another celebrated “liberation” from a secular dictator.